Uncertainty Reigns, Yet the Big Players Keep Buying

 

Every week, Amdax summarizes what’s happening in the crypto market for you. Want to dive deeper? Click on the links in this email for more insights.

This newsletter is a co-production with our partner, Bitcoin Alpha. 

Market Update 

Stay informed in three steps:

1. Bitcoin is not yet showing a strong recovery

After a sharp 23% drop between February 21 and March 11 — with bitcoin falling from $99,500 to $76,500 — the recovery remains limited. The recent rebound is being capped by a major resistance zone between $89,000 and $92,000, where multiple obstacles converge, such as the 50-day moving average and the descending trendline of this correction. Acceptance of the price above $92,000 is necessary to initiate a new upward phase.

2. Risk aversion dominates the market

Uncertainty surrounding U.S. economic policy is at an all-time high. This has led to a decreased risk appetite among investors. This sentiment is not limited to the crypto market, as U.S. equities also suffered significant losses during the same period. Until there’s more policy clarity, the market is expected to remain under pressure.

3. Large investors keep buying bitcoin

Despite continued weakness, we’re seeing a shift in behavior among the largest investors. On-chain data shows that big players are accumulating again, while smaller investors remain predominantly pessimistic. This is evident in the transition from distribution to accumulation among the largest market participants. While this pattern may signal a potential bottom, strong indications of an imminent recovery are still lacking.

News Overview

Signal from the noise:

• Femke Halsema calls for a ban on crypto payments for server rentals.
  In a letter on cybercrime, she advocates for stricter rules, including a KYC obligation and banning crypto as a payment method for infrastructure exploited by criminals. Media outlets like Het Parool claimed that Halsema wants to “ban crypto,” but that’s incorrect. It’s not a general ban — it’s a targeted measure to prevent misuse. It’s striking how nuance quickly disappears when the word “crypto” comes up.
• Second has launched the Ark protocol on Bitcoin testnet.
  Ark is a new payment network on top of Bitcoin, designed for fast, low-cost transactions without requiring users to run their own node. Second built a wallet that lets you try it now on Signet. It resembles the creation of a missing link: as user-friendly as custodial solutions but with self-sovereignty. Ark isn’t a competitor to Lightning, but a complementary layer.
• Chainlink partners with Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM),
  the financial hub of the UAE. ADGM and Chainlink will collaborate on tokenizing traditional financial assets and launching educational initiatives on topics like proof of reserves and cross-chain infrastructure. This is not just any partnership — ADGM is a globally ambitious regulator and sees tokenization as a key financial policy pillar. Web3 is sitting at the table with big finance.
• Trump has pardoned the three founders of BitMEX.
  Arthur Hayes, Benjamin Delo, and Samuel Reed were fined millions in 2022 for anti-money laundering violations but are now fully and unconditionally pardoned. Former employee Gregory Dwyer and the parent company were also pardoned. It seems the government is reassessing past crypto-world incidents. Clean slate — time for the next round.
• FDIC pivots: U.S. banks can now participate in crypto activities without prior approval,
  as long as they manage the risks properly. A barrier in place since 2022 is now removed. The message is clear: if your house is in order, you're welcome. This marks a new tone from the regulator and signals that the era of institutional hesitancy is slowly coming to an end.

Amdax’s Take

The market remains divided. While retail investors remain cautious due to economic uncertainty, major players are using the weakness as an opportunity to expand their positions. This accumulation suggests long-term confidence in a recovery, even if the strength to ignite that recovery is still lacking. Once the market picks a direction, price movement could be swift and decisive.