The calm of a mature market?

Every week, Amdax summarizes what’s happening in the crypto market for you. Want to dive deeper? Click on the links in this email for more insights.

This newsletter is a co-production with our partner, Bitcoin Alpha. 

Market Update 

Stay informed in three steps:

1.Correction Still Fits Within Bull Market
The recent price declines have raised doubts about the continuation of the bull market. However, the correction over the past few months still falls within the range of a healthy market movement. As long as no structural deterioration occurs, a resumption of the upward trend remains well possible.

2.Market Shifting Toward a Calmer Pace
Not every bull market needs to be accompanied by extreme peaks. Increasingly, signals point to a more gradual market progression, with less pronounced highs and lows. This shift aligns with the growing institutional adoption of Bitcoin. If this view holds, the cycle will continue—but in a less spectacular fashion.

3.Fed Slows Balance Sheet Reduction
The U.S. central bank kept interest rates unchanged last week but surprised markets by significantly slowing the pace of its balance sheet reduction. At the same time, the outlook for rate cuts in 2025 remained intact, despite rising inflation expectations. This gave the market confidence. Liquidity is declining less rapidly than feared, which supports a rebound in risk appetite.

News Overview

Signal from the noise:

• U.S. Regulator Drops Case Against Ripple. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced the welcome news on Wednesday: the regulator has dropped more than six cases without result, including the one against Ripple. In short, the legal war on crypto is losing momentum. Formally, the case against Ripple has not yet been fully withdrawn—according to the company, that process could still take weeks. Following the announcement, XRP’s price jumped sharply from $2.32 to $2.53. Over the weekend, the coin gave back part of those gains.
• BlackRock Launches Bitcoin Fund in Europe. BlackRock has launched its first European bitcoin ETP, listed in Paris, Amsterdam, and Frankfurt. The fund tracks the spot price of bitcoin and is custodied by Coinbase. With this move, the asset manager is responding to growing demand for regulated bitcoin products. It reflects rising institutional interest but doesn’t offer investors direct access to bitcoin—something many still see as a key priority.
• Bitcoin Developers Align on First Soft Fork Since Taproot. Bitcoin developers appear to be reaching consensus on a new soft fork—the first since Taproot in 2021. The proposed upgrade, based on BIP-119 and BIP-348, would make the network more efficient and secure, introducing new features including enhancements for the Lightning Network. Remarkably, after years of stagnation, genuine consensus seems to be forming—a rare moment of unity in an ecosystem shaped not just by technical needs, but also by financial powerhouses like Strategy and BlackRock.
• Trump Launches Stablecoin via Crypto Venture World Liberty. Donald Trump’s crypto venture, World Liberty Financial, is launching USD1—a stablecoin fully backed by dollars and U.S. Treasuries. The coin will be issued on Ethereum and Binance Smart Chain, with BitGo as reserve custodian. World Liberty previously raised $550 million through its $WLFI token sale. USD1 targets institutional users but will face stiff competition from established players like Tether and USDC.
• Institutional Investors Want More Crypto in 2025. According to new research by Coinbase and EY-Parthenon, 83% of institutional investors want to increase their exposure to crypto. Nearly 60% are considering allocating more than 5% of their assets under management to digital assets. Notably, stablecoins and DeFi are gaining rapid ground: 84% currently use or plan to use stablecoins, and DeFi participation is expected to grow from 24% to 75% within two years. Regulation remains the biggest hurdle, but the message is clear: institutions are looking beyond just bitcoin.
• SEC Clarifies Bitcoin Mining Is Not a Security. The SEC has provided clarity: bitcoin mining does not fall under U.S. securities law. Those contributing to networks like Bitcoin or Litecoin via Proof-of-Work are not considered investors in a security, but rather service providers. This comes as a relief for miners who have long operated in legal limbo. However, shares of major mining companies have lagged, showing that the market is focused on more than just regulatory developments.

Amdax’s Take

Bitcoin is consolidating, memecoins are losing momentum, and capital is flowing into stablecoins. Yet, at the same time, the foundation for the future is being laid. For now, this doesn’t seem like the end of the bull market, but rather a phase where speculation gives way to stability. Those who remain patient will ultimately reap the benefits.