Knowledge base

At AMDAX, we encourage our customers to read up on the crypto market. We have collected a carefully selected collection of educational materials on this page. These models and documents can help you create a framework to properly value these digital assets.

The content is divided into six categories: qualitative research, quantitative research, research documents, tools & models, videos and podcasts.

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Podcast

What Bitcoin did

Podcast host Peter McCormack talks to experts in the world of Bitcoin. From developers to investors, journalists to Bitcoin company CEOs, you will learn about everything that is happening in the world of Bitcoin.

Podcast

The investors podcast

The Investor’s Podcast Network is an exclusive business podcast network. Since 2012 they have been educated professional investors and business people all over the world about how to grow financially and personally. Their main show “We Study Billionaires” is the largest stocks investing podcast show in the world.

Podcast

The Blockchain show

The Blockchain Show is a weekly podcast that demystifies cryptocurrencies and distributed ledger technology.

Podcast

Stephan Livera

Stephan Livera Podcast (SLP) is one of the world’s leading Bitcoin podcasts. Stephan has interviewed many high profile Bitcoin & Austrian economics guests.

Podcast

Raoul Pal / Real Vision

Real Vision is where you can gain an understanding of the complex world of finance, business and the global economy with real in-depth analysis from real experts. Every Tuesday and Thursday, Real Vision publishes a new episode of The Interview, the premier business and finance interview series in the world.

Podcast

Epicenter

Epicenter brings you in-depth conversations about the technical, economic and social implications of cryptocurrencies and Blockchain technologies. Every week, they interview business leaders, engineers academics and entrepreneurs, and bring you a diverse spectrum of opinions and points of view.

Podcast

Bitcoin & Markets

The Bitcoin & Markets podcast covers topics all topics covering Bitcoin.

Tools

Woobull charts

An easy-to-use site for tracking a wide range of pre-defined investment, economic and network metrics for Bitcoin.

Tools

LookIntoBitcoin

This is an outstanding resource to learn about and track on-chain metrics. Credit to Philip Swift.

Tools

HODL Waves Chart

Live chart of age distribution for Bitcoin’s UTXO set dating back to the genesis block. This chart can help with analysis of ownership tendencies throughout Bitcoin’s history and through market cycles.

Tools

Coinmetrics

One of the most trusted data providers in the crypto asset space. Coinmetrics provides clarity around their data cleansing methods, and the team has developed a number of new analysis approaches. The charting feature provides an easy way for users to explore valuation methods.

Tools

Blockchain Mining stats

The most important mining statistics and breakdowns. Anything from hashrate to mining difficulty, network activity etc.

Tools

Bitcoin Volatility

A snapshot of real-time Bitcoin volatility that looks at the standard deviation of daily returns for the preceding 30- and 60-day windows. These are measures of historical volatility.

Video

Why Michael Saylor Converted $400 Million of the MicroStrategy Balance Sheet Into Bitcoin

Video

What is Bitcoin?

Video

What Is Bitcoin and Why Is It Important?

Video

The real value of bitcoin and crypto currency technology

Video

The Essence of How Bitcoin Works

Video

Khan Acadamey: An introduction to the mechanics of bitcoins and an overview of how transactions take place

Video

Is Bitcoin the Future of Money? Peter Schiff vs. Erik Voorhees

Video

How Bitcoin Works Under the Hood

Video

Bitcoin explained and made simple

Video

Bitcoin Cryptocurrency Crash Course with Andreas Antonopoulos

Video

ANTONOPOULOS – THE FUTURE OF MONEY: How Bitcoin & Blockchain Become The World’s Currency – Part 1/2

Video

Andreas Antonopoulos on Bitcoin

Research document

Socio-economic signals in the Bitcoin economy

This paper reveals the interdependence between social signals and price in the Bitcoin economy, namely a social feedback cycle based on word-of-mouth effect and a user-driven adoption cycle.

Research document

Metcalfe’s Law as a Model for Bitcoin’s Value

This paper demonstrates that bitcoin’s medium- to long-term price follows Metcalfe’s law. Bitcoin is modeled as a token digital currency, a medium of exchange with no intrinsic value that is transacted within a defined electronic network.

Research document

Institutional Digital Asset Investor Study

Research study by Fidelity on the growing number of institutional investors that believe that digital assets should be a part of their investment portfolios.

Research document

Buzz Factor or Innovation Potential: What Explains Cryptocurrencies’ Returns?

Explores the relationship between the “buzz factor” and investment returns. The report finds that crypto assets do not behave similarly to traditional currencies or commodities and that the industry is much more mature, and less speculative, than most assume.

Research document

Are Bitcoin Bubbles Predictable? Combining a Generalized Metcalfe’s Law and the LPPLS Model

We develop a strong diagnostic for bubbles and crashes in bitcoin, by analyzing the coincidence (and its absence) of fundamental and technical indicators. Using a generalized Metcalfe’s law based on network properties, a fundamental value is quantified and shown to be heavily exceeded, on at least four occasions, by bubbles that grow and burst.

Research document

An Equilibrium Valuation of Bitcoin and Decentralized Network Assets

Addresses the valuation of Bitcoin and other blockchain tokens in a new type of production economy: a decentralized financial network. This is one of the first economic models to incorporate both supply and demand side assumptions for Bitcoin.

Quantitative research

Valuing Bitcoin and Ethereum with Metcalfe’s Law by Clearblocks

Proposes a Price-to-Metcalfe Ratio using a smoothed, modified Metcalfe-implied price based on active addresses.

Quantitative research

Rethinking Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Ratio by Dmitry Kalichkin

Builds on the existing NVT Ratio work, modifying the original approach from Willy Woo by using a 90-day trailing average rather than the 14 day forward and 14 day trailing average presented by Woo. The 90-day trailing average presents a faster signal for identifying tops.

Quantitative research

Rethinking Metcalfe’s Law applications to cryptoasset valuation by Dmitry Kalichkin

Metcalfe’s and modifications to Metcalfe’s Law are applied to Daily Active Addresses to create upper and lower bounds for Bitcoin Valuation based on network activity.

Quantitative research

On Value, Velocity and Monetary Theory by Alex Evans

A critique of the INET valuation model as presented by Chris Burniske and an in-depth review of Velocity as it is currently understood for crypto assets.

Quantitative research

Liveliness of Bitcoin by Tamas Blummer

Liveliness is defined as the ratio of the sum of Bitcoin Days Destroyed to the sum of Bitcoin Days Created and is presented as a percentage from 0 to 100%. Liveliness gives insight to behavior of investors. It increases as long-term holders liquidate positions and decreases while they accumulate and HODL.

Quantitative research

Introducing Realized Capitalization by CoinMetrics

Realized Cap assigns a price to each UTXO at the time of last outgoing transaction. Realized Cap de-emphasizes lost or unused tokens and presents a final layer of the entire ecosystem’s cost basis.

Quantitative research

Introducing NVT Ratio (Bitcoin’s PE Ratio), use it to detect bubbles by Will Woo

NVT Ratio is the ratio of network value to transactions value and is used to identify periods of over and under valuation.

Quantitative research

Introducing … The Bitcoin “MVRV Z” Metric That Predicts Market Tops with 90%+ Accuracy by Awe & Wonder

Building on top of MVRV, “MVRV Z” normalizes the MVRV oscillator as a Z-score and compares that to BTC historical Market Cap, Realized Cap and the log trend of Realized Cap. Even further signal is brought to the Realized Cap metric with this article.

Quantitative research

Bitcoin’s Logarithmic Growth Rates, Facebook’s S-curve, and Future Projections by Awe & Wonder

A compelling case made for the accuracy of logarithmic regression in predicting BTC price. Uses Facebook user growth to exemplify the power of this methodology. Adding bull and bear cycle analysis on top of the logarithmic regression increases forecasting precision.

Quantitative research

Bitcoin Network Momentum by PositiveCrypto

Network Momentum quantifies the relationship between Bitcoin’s price and the BTC value of daily transactions flowing through the blockchain. Introduces three phases of BTC cycles based on differing stages of that relationship: 1) Early bear phase; 2) Late bear phase; and Bull phase.

Quantitative research

Bitcoin Market-Value-to-Realized-Value (MVRV) Ratio by Murad Mahmudov and David Puell

Building on top of Nic Carter’s Realized Cap metric, Realized Cap is compared to Market Cap, which is presented historically side-by-side and also as an oscillating ratio. MVRV has become a staple valuation metric.

Quantitative research

Bitcoin Delta Capitalization by David Puell

Delta Cap is a hybrid indicator that is partially fundamental analysis and partially technical analysis. Delta Cap is the difference between Realized Cap as defined by CoinMetrics and Average Cap defined as the simple moving average of market capitalization life-to-date.

Quantitative research

Bitcoin Data Science (Pt. 1): HODL Waves by Unchained Capital

The HODL Wave chart is a seminal visualization of the BTC’s UTXO age distribution, bucketed into age categories from <1D to>5Y. HODL Waves is the historical analysis of large-scale market behavior.

Quantitative research

An Efficient-Markets Valuation Framework for Cryptoassets using Black-Scholes Option Theory by Johnny Antos

Theoretical framework comparing the purchase of a crypto asset today to a call option on massive potential future upside with an unknown, but potentially long timeframe and enormous volatility.

Quantitative research

A Primer on Bitcoin Investor Sentiment and Changes in Saving Behavior by Adamant Capital

Begins with an excellent summary on Bitcoin valuation history and subsequently introduces 1) Relative Unrealized P&L, which quantifies investor sentiment; 2) Liveness, which quantifies the extent to which savers are using a crypto; and 3) HODLer Net Position Change, which quantifies whale buying and selling.

Quantitative research

A Macro-Mathematical Model for the Observed Value of Digital BlockChain Networks by Ken Alabi

Presents a modified Metcalfe approach to valuing crypto assets via application of the Netoid Function to daily active addresses.

Qualitative research

Velocity of Tokens by James Kilroe

Detailed examination of Velocity in the context of MV=PQ. Discusses velocity in terms of too high, too low and just right. One of the first articles to shine a spotlight on the Velocity Problem.

Qualitative research

Valuing Productive Cryptoassets by Phil Bonello

Introduces the concept of productive and non-productive crypto asset classifications and presents differing valuation characteristics for each.

Qualitative research

Tokenomics — A Business Guide to Token Usage, Utility and Value by William Mougayar

A foundational taxonomy of token characteristics and framework for assesing crypto asset utility.

Qualitative research

Today’s Crypto Asset Valuation Frameworks by Blockchain by Ashley Lannquist

A concise review of existing crypto asset valuation methodologies and ideas around additional methodologies that could be explored. Excellent reference appendix included.

Qualitative research

The Crypto J-Curve by Chris Burniske

An important qualitative valuation framework that introduces the concept of Total Value being the summation Current Utility Value and Discounted Expected Utility Value. The growth and oscillation expectations of these factors are reviewed.

Qualitative research

The 7 Things You Need To Know From The Valuing Cryptocurrency Conference Call by Lou Kerner

An hour long conference call with slide presentation on crypto asset valuation fundamentals. Some of this material has subsequently been disproven.

Qualitative research

On the Velocity Problem for Cryptoasset Value by Wilson Lau

A brief review of existing commentary on Velocity and new incremental examinations of the characteristics and implications of Velocity.

Qualitative research

On the Immaturity of Tokenized Value Capture Mechanisms by Felipe Gaucho Pereira

A foundational taxonomy of crypto asset categories including examples of each, the valuation implications for those categories and a helpful appendix of references.

Qualitative research

On Medium-of-Exchange Token Valuations by Vitalik Buterin

A reworking of MV=PQ into a form more fitting for crypto assets and a discussion of velocity characteristics and implications.

Qualitative research

New Models For Utility Tokens by Multicoin Capital

Introductory overview of two types of utility token models that may be promising: 1) Work Tokens; and 2) Burn-and-Mint Equilibrium.

Qualitative research

MV=P…Que? Love and Circularity in the Time of Crypto by Brian Koralewski

An in-depth critique of MV=PQ and commentary around the characteristics of the components.

Qualitative research

Doubts about the Long-Term Viability of Utility Cryptoassets by John Pfeffer

Highlights the Velocity Problem for utility tokens, makes the comparison of utility tokens to working capital and proposes that any crypto asset that is not viewed as a store of value will have a difficult time accruing value over the long-term.

Qualitative research

An (Institutional) Investor’s Take on Cryptoassets by John Pfeffer

A formative thesis on the investment opportunity set of the crypto asset landscape.

Podcast

Pomp podcast

The Pomp Podcast, one of the most popular podcasts in business and investing! Host Anthony “Pomp” Pompliano talks to the most interesting people in business, finance, and Bitcoin.

Qualitative research

The case for a small allocation to Bitcoin by Wences Casares, CEO of Xapo

Wences Casares, CEO of the Bitcoin wallet company Xapo makes a case for allocating a small amount of every portfolio to Bitcoin because of the unique value Bitcoin has via its sovereignty, and the potential for large returns relative to the risk taken.