Memes dominate the market once again

The week started Monday with unexpected commotion. A meme phenomenon announced its return and caused spikes in both the stock and crypto markets. You understand, a tumultuous week, not least because important macroeconomic figures are also being released. More about this in this Weekly!

This weekly in brief: 

• Market: The price of bitcoin is $61,000 and the price of ether is $2,900. Both are at the lower end of the price range of the past 11 weeks. Therefore, the end of this correction is not yet in sight.
• News: The return of Keith Gill - the man behind Roaring Kitty - has drawn attention to memecoins and meme stocks. Against this backdrop, the presidential race in the US has also kicked off, with crypto playing a prominent role.
• Behind the scenes: We are attending the Dutch Blockchain Days on June 19! Will we see you there?

Crypto market

Of the past 77 days, 75 had a daily close above $60,000. Only in the turbulent week around central banker Jerome Powell's press conference in early May did we dip below for two days. Then we reached $56,500, which was also the lowest point of this correction.

So far, we must say. Because the correction is only over when we rise above $73,800 to reach new all-time highs. An early sign that the declining short-term trend has reversed will be seen at prices above $67,000. Then we see a higher peak after a series of lower peaks (LH in the chart below, lower high). We are also back above the 50-day moving average.

Until we see that higher peak, we are in a downtrend. And that includes considering the scenario of seeing prices drop below $60,000 again before the tide turns and we go back up. Because that's what we assume. Given the long-term uptrend, the assumption is that the price will continue to rise after this correction.

In March, not only did the price reach its peak, but also various figures on activity in the crypto market were at their highest levels of this bull market. Trading volume on exchanges, transaction volume on the blockchain, number of active addresses, number of downloads of crypto apps, and the number of searches for 'bitcoin' on Google.

All these indicators, like the price, have dropped significantly in recent weeks. This correction is a pause in all respects. The chart below shows the inflow of capital into bitcoin. In light blue is the total money flow, based on the change in the realized cap. In dark blue are the flows to the US spot bitcoin ETFs. Here too, we see a clear decrease after the peaks in February and March.

Periods of calm and activity alternate. Will the next big market move be up or down? No one knows. However, given the long-term uptrend, the assumption is that the price will continue to rise after this correction.

It's possible that macroeconomic figures will trigger the next move. Whether the US central bank will ease monetary policy this year depends on inflation and employment figures. If we see favorable figures there, confidence and risk appetite in the market may return.

We're far from the meme stock mania of 2021 when GameStop stocks skyrocketed. Yet it's clear to see that - presumably largely - retail investors are responding again to Gill's call, even in the crypto market.

Memecoins like Pepe, Dogecoin, FLOKI, Dogwifhat, and several randomly launched tokens inspired by GME saw significant increases in value after Roaring Kitty announced his return. The total market value of GameStop is back above $9 billion, and the stock rose by 74% on Monday. AMC, another favorite of meme stock traders, closed 78% higher.

The circumstances in 2021 were unique. Life was turned upside down due to the pandemic, resulting in hoarded savings and plenty of free time for some. Additionally, policy interest rates were historically low. The perfect conditions for a speculative frenzy.

In contrast, in 2024 memecoins dominate the market. Not many assets performed better than bitcoin, but a large portion of the tokens that saw faster value increases fall into the meme coin category. With Solana as a fast and inexpensive trading venue, taking a gamble is easier than ever.

A repeat of 2021 is unlikely, but for those who enjoy trading in meme stocks and meme coins, Monday marked an exciting time. Remember: these cycles usually have a short and tumultuous lifespan!

Other news:

• The queue for new Ethereum validators is almost empty. On Tuesday, there were only about 20 new validators waiting for approval. In early April, there were still 21,500, almost 1000 times as many. The number of active validators reached a new high of 1,014,300 on Tuesday. Almost 27 percent of all ether generates passive returns (between 3 and 4 percent) through staking.
• The political battle over crypto has erupted in the US. The American crypto market is at odds with sitting President Biden and the government he leads. Biden drew a line under his hesitancy this week by supporting the behavior of the SEC regulator from the White House. In response, former President Trump positioned himself on the opposite end of the spectrum: "Vote for me if you love crypto!"
• Bitcoin miners scale back operations after halving. Since the end of April, the total computing power they provide has decreased by almost 10 percent. Analysts say this is logical because the margin has shrunk significantly after the halving. Miners hope for a repeat of previous cycles, where the price increase of bitcoin more than compensated for the losses incurred.