Big Players Step In While Bitcoin Seeks a Way Out 

 

Every week, Amdax summarizes what’s happening in the crypto market for you. Want to dive deeper? Click on the links in this email for more insights.

This newsletter is a co-production with our partner, Bitcoin Alpha. 

Market Update 

Stay informed in three steps:

1. Bitcoin is stuck in a worn-out price range 
For the past twelve weeks, Bitcoin has mostly hovered between $93,000 and $104,000. But now, the market seems to have played out this range: trading volumes are low, and recent buyers have little profit to realize. Without a fresh catalyst, the price is expected to continue moving sideways. 

2. Expectations for a new cycle are rising 
Investors are waiting for a new weekly cycle—the moment when the market shifts direction. Right now, Bitcoin’s price barely reacts to macroeconomic data or news, but once optimism returns, things could turn around quickly. This could mark the turning point for the next major move. 

3. Price targets remain ambitious but need more euphoria 
Historically, bull markets peak when Bitcoin’s market value is four times its realized value—an MVRV of 4.0. Currently, that ratio sits at 2.2. For Bitcoin to surge to, say, $173,000 or even $380,000, a new wave of hype and FOMO is needed—something that has yet to materialize. 

Want a more in-depth market analysis? Check out the latest market update from our partner, Bitcoin Alpha: Bitcoin Alpha Market Update. 

News Overview

Signal from the noise:

• Klarna explores crypto integration. The Swedish fintech, known for its “buy now, pay later” services, has expressed interest in embracing crypto. CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski called on the community for ideas. With 85 million users and an annual transaction volume of $100 billion, Klarna could introduce crypto to a much broader audience. The timing is notable: Klarna is preparing for a U.S. IPO, with an expected valuation of up to $15 billion.

   

• Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund invests $436.9 million in Bitcoin. Documents published by the U.S. SEC reveal that Mubadala Investment Company (MIC) has allocated these funds to BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF. Analysts see this as further proof of growing institutional interest in digital assets. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart noted on X that MIC is now the sixth-largest investor in the BlackRock fund.

   

• Wisconsin’s state pension fund doubles down on Bitcoin. In just one quarter, the number of shares held in BlackRock’s IBIT fund jumped from 2.9 million to over 6 million—worth $321.5 million as of December 31, 2024. Other institutional investors have also increased their positions this week, whether on their own behalf or for their clients. However, SWIB’s move is particularly significant: the actions of conservative funds toward Bitcoin send a strong signal.

   

• Major U.S. banks expand into crypto. According to The Information, institutions like State Street and Citigroup are making moves. State Street has partnered with Swiss crypto firm Taurus to offer custody services, while Citigroup is also positioning itself as a custodian and plans to develop its own services. Analysts see President Trump’s return as a key catalyst behind the increased activity among financial institutions. 

Amdax’s Take

Institutional investors continue to embrace Bitcoin step by step. It’s a slow process, but with each pension fund and sovereign wealth fund that joins in, Bitcoin gains credibility as a legitimate asset class. The recent investments by Mubadala and SWIB highlight this: these aren’t speculators but managers of billions, carefully increasing their allocations.

But the real test remains: what happens when the market corrects? Only if these funds keep buying during a downturn will institutional adoption be truly solidified. For now, they’re making an important move.