Calm Before the Storm or Prolonged Sideways Movement?

Every week, Amdax summarizes what's happening in the crypto market for you. Want to learn more? Click through for further insights. 

This newsletter is a co-production with our partner Bitcoin Alpha.

Market Update 

Stay informed in three steps:

1. Inflation Data Comes in Higher Than Expected
U.S. core inflation came in at 3.3% year-over-year, exceeding the expected 3.1%. This limits the Federal Reserve's ability to implement interest rate cuts. Despite this news, Bitcoin has remained within the $110,000–$90,000 range since its price surge in November 2024. This pattern resembles previous consolidation phases in this market cycle.

2. Altcoins Remain Weak Despite a Stable Bitcoin
While Bitcoin is moving steadily within a defined price range, many altcoins have retraced to their pre-November 2024 levels. In past bull markets, altcoins typically followed Bitcoin’s trajectory at this stage or even outperformed it. This time, however, most altcoins are losing ground. This pattern will likely persist until Bitcoin makes its next upward move.

3. The Market Awaits a New Catalyst
Trump’s election victory and the appointment of a crypto-friendly administration in the U.S. initially fueled optimism in the market. Many investors expected an immediate positive effect, but so far, that has not materialized. As a result, uncertainty has increased. Without a new catalyst, the market is expected to continue moving sideways, waiting for the next major trigger.
 

News Overview

Signal out of the noise:

• Winklevoss Twins consider taking Gemini public this year.
  Insiders report that Gemini is in talks with advisors about an IPO, though no final decision has been made. This move follows a wave of public listing ambitions in the crypto sector, driven by President Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance. Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss supported Trump’s campaign with significant Bitcoin donations. Earlier this year, Gemini settled a case with the CFTC for $5 million.
   
• Trump’s media company plans to launch Bitcoin and energy ETFs under “Truth.Fi”.
  Trump’s media firm has announced plans for three ETFs, including a “Bitcoin Plus ETF.” His financial market involvement raises ethical concerns, with a U.S. watchdog already filing a complaint with the Department of Justice over potential conflicts of interest regarding Trump’s support for his own memecoin. The intersection of politics, crypto, and personal business interests is bound to spark further controversy.
   
• MicroStrategy rebrands to ‘Strategy’ and doubles down on Bitcoin.
  The company, now holding 471,000 BTC worth $44 billion, remains the largest corporate Bitcoin holder. The rebranding includes a new orange-themed identity and a prominent Bitcoin symbol in its logo. More than just a cosmetic change, it signals the full integration of Bitcoin into its business model. Strategy aims to position itself as a leveraged bet on Bitcoin’s growth, attracting both retail and institutional investors.
   
• Operation Choke Point 2.0 is over, but the battle over crypto continues.
  Nic Carter, who coined the term, has declared the operation finished. FDIC documents reveal that banks were pressured to cut ties with crypto firms. Under Trump, that’s changing banks are preparing to re-enter the crypto space. The FDIC is easing guidelines, making it easier for banks to offer crypto services. A key question remains: how will this new dynamic between banks and crypto firms like Coinbase unfold?
   
• Institutional traders increasingly embrace crypto, JPMorgan survey shows.
  Nearly 30% of institutional traders expect to invest in cryptocurrencies this year, up from 21% in 2024. Analysts say this shift reflects crypto’s growing status as a legitimate asset class, rather than just a speculative gamble. The expectation of clear regulatory frameworks under the Trump administration has boosted confidence in the sector.
   

Amdax’s Take

Many investors saw Trump’s victory as the beginning of a golden era for crypto. However, the immediate impact has been limited, which is not surprising—major policy shifts take time. The market had overly high expectations. This is a familiar pattern in crypto: euphoria quickly turns into disappointment, and vice versa. For now, patience is key. But the fact that crypto is being seriously discussed at the highest political level is an important signal.